– By Kailash Anerao
We will start hitting 3C global avg temp rise by 2032-35 as we continue this death economy – exploitation of natural habitats for unlimited GDP growth (latest is sea bed mining for blue economy)
One thing pandemic should had taught us is that we cannot rely on any govt data.
But we continue to rely on mainstream govt data for global warming without questioning & probing it further:
- Are you aware that Paris Agreement has put limits of 1.5C-2C compared to pre-industrial baseline without defining “pre-industrial baseline”. If we take the pre-industrial baseline as 1880-1910, then we are already 1.39C over the baseline. But did industrialisation start in 1880 or much much before that?
The first steam engine to be applied industrially was the “fire-engine” or “Miner’s Friend”, designed by Thomas Savery in 1698. n 1712, Thomas Newcomen’s atmospheric engine became the first commercially successful engine using the principle of the piston and cylinder, which was the fundamental type of steam engine used until the early 20th century. The steam engine was used to pump water out of coal mines.
So, even if we ignore all these developments we will have to take an average and put the baseline at 1750. Now from 1750 to 1880, we heated the planet with coal emissions. The question is how much? Even if we assume that it was in the region of a modest figure of 0.25C-0.35C, we have crossed 1.5C Paris limit already (1.39C + 0.25C) viz 1.65C-1.75C.
Net point I am making is how much temperature we have increased is relative to the baseline. Shift the baseline and viola the global avg temp rise can be manipulated.
- It is not only carbon-dioxide emissions we should be concerned of because Methane & Nitrous Oxide are also increasing rapidly in the atmosphere. Methane is 120-150 times more heat trapping gas than CO2 in the initial 3-5 years and as it degrades to become CO2 its avg heat trapping capacity decreases – so 86 times over 20 year period is highlighted as if we have that much time left. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is 299 times more heat trapping gas than CO2. In addition to these big three greenhouse gases, there are 40 others. Presently, the agreed global avg numbers of the big three GHG are as follows:
i CO2 – 420ppm (long-term avg). The daily maximum no’s measured varies depending on where you measure them. Mumbai could give upwards of 500ppm & even Mauna Loa Observatory gives around 425-430ppm daily & monthly maximums now.
ii. Methane – 1900ppb (avg) conversion in CO2 equivalent – 1900120=228,000 or 228ppm CO2e at higher end & 190086=152,000 or 152ppm at lower end; i am taking higher number is because Arctic ice is likely to almost disappear in summer in the next 5 years. A Climate tipping point of no return. Not going into the maximum nos which are sometimes hitting around 3000ppb.
iii) Nitrous Oxide or the laughing gas – 335ppb (avg). The CO2e equivalent nos translate into 335*299=100165 or 100ppm CO2e.
So total of these 3 major GHG translates into 420+228+100=750ppm CO2e plus other 40 GHGs plus water-vapour which has increased by upto 10% in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial era, another potent heat trapping agent. A hotter planet is a more wetter planet with greater extreme weather & humidity.
Comparing, 750 ppm avg CO2e equivalent with the pre-industrial figures of 450ppm CO2e [280ppm (CO2) plus 90ppm (Methane) plus 80 ppm (Nitrous Oxide)] is a 300ppm increase in CO2e compared to pre-industrial era and taking into consideration that there is a time lag of a 10 year period between emissions and heating we should reach 3C by 2032-35 (every 100ppm roughly translates into 1C global avg temp rise). So even if we don’t add any CO2, CH4, N2O to the atmosphere-there is absolutely nothing to stop the global average temp rise to 3C upto the year 2035 (we have already exceeded 2C in 2024 on four consecutive days even compared to the baseline of 1850-1910).
https://x.com/aneraokailash/status/1855252477177737263?s=48
Sea level rise has a further time lag after emissions & heating. Not going into it here. 3C global avg temp rise is extinction for most complex life forms on Earth. So not only we need to cease all GHG emissions immediately we need to suck the carbon back from the atmosphere naturally by rewilding the Earth on a massive scale to have a chance at survival as a species.
There is no way we can continue emissions from here and survive.
But, the mainstream media controlled by billionaires, continue to fool the public by pushing for business as usual of pursuing GDP growth through unlimited consumption with new slogans like Build Back Better, Great Reset, Green New Deal, Net-zero by 2050-2070 etc. which will do only one thing viz take us further from the possibility of a chance of survival as a species.
The period of 2023-25 is an EL-Nino period coupled with Grand Solar Maximum (above avg high sun spot activity). If we don’t cool down the planet by stopping emissions completely & simultaneously rewilding at a global scale, then there is nothing to stop Arctic going almost ice-free in summer. Once that happens, we will flip an irreversible switch in the climate breakdown of the planet. Then only God can save us. If we attempt geo-engineering listening to billionaire like Bill Gates & WEF group of psychopaths instead of
-stopping all GHG emissions;
- stopping destruction of remaining natural habitats and simultaneously
- rewilding the planet on a global scale
we will only worsen & hasten the climate catastrophe & consequent chaos.
Scientists & Academics knowing that we may never decide in favour of life over lifestyle & ecology over economy have urged to start a discussion on societal collapse.
Do you remember 2020 when despite decrease in emissions due to pandemic, La Niña and Solar Minimum still we experienced the hottest year with humans on the planet. That has been the trend in the previous 10 years. 2023 has been the hottest year with humans on the planet & 2024 is poised to be hotter with greenhouse emissions still on the rise despite switching to so-called “alternative energy” of solar, wind, nuclear, etc.
Despite promises by world leaders, we have not met a single target for emissions decrease, deforestation decrease or stopping biodiversity loss in the last decade. We are being tricked to rely on false optimism, slogans and lies; however only by seeking & accepting the truth will help us to take the right steps to save complex life forms on the planet including us from going extinct. Otherwise prepare to become microbes again due to human hubris & greed.
